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Blitz Pickz: Beat the Odds, Week 9 NCAA College Football Betting

After what I consider an off week of (4-2) in Week 8, I’m feeling a little motivated to kill the books this weekend.

2010: (33-19-1) 63.46%

There aren’t a ton of games on this weeks lineup that I’m liking all that much. When checking over the College Football Odds, 2 maybe 3 games jumped out at me that I feel the books are off base on.

Don’t forget, you can see my official betting spreadsheet here: Blitz Pickz (ACC Blitz) Betting Sheet.



Play #1
Clemson (-7) at Boston College
The Tigers are rolling in their last two games. Kyle Parker has finally found some receivers he can count on, and it has (slowly) started opening up the passing game, which in turn is creating ample opportunity for RB Andre Ellington who went off for 166 yards against Georgia Tech, and is now averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

True, Boston College does have the best rushing defense in the ACC, allowing only 83 yards a game. But they haven’t faced an O-Line/RB combo like this. And DE Alex Albright is officially done for the year (he was their leading pass rusher and an anchor on that D-Line). FS Wes Davis is questionable, as is CB DeLeon Gause. All 3 are starters on defense, and believe you me – offensive coordinator Billy Napier will try to exploit the Eagles missing 2 key guys in the pass defense game.

It’s also a bonus for Tiger backers that BC is riddled with injuries this weekend:

OUT
S Wes Davis (Starter)
CB DeLeon Glaus (Starter)
DE Alex Albright (Starter)

QUESTIONABLE
DT Conor O’Neal (leg)
DE Brad Newman (leg)
WR Billy Flutie has a hamstring pull and may see action only as a holder on placekicks
WR Shakim Phillips (shoulder) is out, and wide receiver Clyde Lee (leg) is probable
WR Clyde Lee (shoulder)

Also, RB Sterlin Phifer left the team. He played a limited role behind starter Montel Harris but was the only legit RB they had behind Harris.

Verdict: Clemson – they likely win by double digits. Take (-6.5) if you can get it there. That extra .5 is worth the safety cushion *just in case* BC somehow keeps is close.



Play #2
Utah at Air Force
Utah has been an ATS covering machine this year, posting a 6-0-1 record. Air Force is the polar opposite at 2-6. I’m not calling this game based on just that. Fact is, The Utes are one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation. They’re averaging nearly 48 points a game, and feature an offensive attack that puts up 467 yards per game (274 passing/193 rushing). Add to the equation their dominate defense, only allowing 13 points a game and keeping teams to just 247 yards TOTAL.

Air Force has an effective and sometimes dominate rushing attack BUT the Utes only allow 87 yards on the ground. Too make matters worse, they’ll be without RB Jared Tew, a key figure in their option attack.

Despite this being at Air Force, Utah has BCS on it’s mind and rolls BIG.

Verdict: Utah – don’t be surprised if they win by 3 TD’s or more. This team is the real deal.



Other considerations
Hawaii – I really like them at home against a bad Idaho team, but am waiting to see if I can grab the line at -13.5/-14.0 right before game time. They’re playing for bowl contention. The one thing too worry about though – looking ahead to Boise State next week.

Hawaii/Idaho – OVER 64.5. Two teams with lights out passing games and no passing defense. They might hit this over by HALFTIME.

East Carolina/UCF – OVER. The current line is 53 points. That’s a gift from God himself. This one likely ends up in the 30′s.