Beat the Odds: NCAA Football Week 2 Picks
With Week 1 in the books, my record stands at a whopping 3-2. Silver lining – I’m in the positive. But I’m not happy with a 60% winning clip. It’s actually pretty ironic, the two teams that burned me seemed to be the easy picks of the weekend (Florida and USC). The weekend would have been a BIG one if the Gators center knew how to snap the damn ball correctly. And don’t get me started on the Trojans giving up a ton of points to a Hawaii squad that’s in complete rebuild mode.
Thankfully, Oklahoma State, Georgia, and Nebraska held their own and covered.
I’ve been endlessly studying the week 2 match-ups and the NCAA Football Odds, and unlike last week, I’ll likely only have a handful of plays. I’ve give you a quick rundown.
#1 – Georgia Tech (-13.5)
The reigning ACC Champs led by a potential Heisman contender versus a team that’s breaking in a new coach, and just lost to a lower division opponent. Not much more needed here. Bank it. Even ESPN is calling for a blowout. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line end up around -17 before kickoff.
#2 – OVER 50 – Duke at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils are sporting the number one offense in the ACC (yes, Duke) and have a legitimate passing game. Wake Forest is coming off a 400+ yard rushing game and 50+ points. Duke can’t defend the run (Wake’s strong point) and Wake can’t defend the pass (Duke’s strong point). I can easily see 30+ points for each squad and history is in it’s favor. Year after year these squads go toe to toe in a shootout.
#3 – OVER 50 – Virginia at USC
USC showed in its opener that Coach Kiffen will be going pedal to the medal trying to light up the scoreboard. He wants to prove himself and show the Trojans are still running with 5-Star guys all over the field. Behind QB Matt Barkley the USC offense is electric and they’re facing a Virginia defense that couldn’t stop my nephews pee-wee team from scoring 30 points. The Cavs showed a marked improvement on offense in their win against Richmond. Both squads have inferior defenses. USC will score 40+, Virginia 20+. Easy cover here.
#4 – OVER 50 – BYU at Air Force
BYU is coming off a big win against Washington, topping 400 yards of offense. Air Force dropped 65 points and rolled up over 600 yards in their opening day win. This has shootout written all over it, or at the least 30+ for each team.
There are a few more really intriguing lines, they’re just not low enough to jump on – yet. Keep an eye out on line movement. You could always buy them down some, but the payout isn’t as high. That or even parlay them and bring them down.
#4 – Boston College (-17.5). Safe bet – bring it down to (-16.5)
The Eagles looked good on offense but barely average in their opening weekend win against Weber State. Coach Spaz will obviously make some adjustments, but what worries me is a Kent State team that is better than Weber State. I could see them backdooring to cover +17.5. Knock off 1 point to -16.5. It’s still -130, so the juice doesn’t go up that much and I could see a 17 point victory .
#5 – Oregon (-11.5). Safe bet – bring it down to (-9.5)
I almost took the Ducks to cover -35 last week in their opener, and I’m kicking myself after they won 72-0. Visiting Tennessee is a whole new ball game, The Vols won their opener 50-0 against Tenn-Martin, but I’m not buying into them just yet considering that was one of the BIGGEST mismatches on opening weekend. Oregon won’t win by 20+, but they will get the win. I could see a late, nail in the coffin field goal or TD bringing it to double digits.
Finally I have my ‘it’s a crap shoot’ set of picks. These look oh so good, but are just too close to call.
Miami (FL) (+8.5), and Duke (+6.0)
I’m out. Good luck everyone. And I swear, it’s pure coincidence a majority of my picks are on ACC games. Although, I do have an advantage calling these games.
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